Forecasting Avalanches

Determining the degree of avalanche danger area is determined by results of the forecast. Under the prediction of avalanches (or avalanche danger) must be understood scientifically based prediction, the prediction of the location, time origin, nature and size of avalanches. Forecast of avalanche danger may be the background, district and detailed. Background forecast avalanche hazard is based on the analysis of aero-synoptic, meteorological information and data of snow accumulation. Such an analysis allows us to make predictions for the whole mountain country, the range or individual large areas with a large lead time, which to date is 1-3 days.

Forecast issued alternative form: "avalanche" or "Nelavinoopasno. It determines the possibility of avalanches without specifying their size and specific sites have been placed. District forecast is prepared for the individual valleys, saddle parts, groups of avalanche centers, threatening objects. The projections put two groups of methods based on studying the stability of snow thickness on the slopes and analysis of meteorological conditions that lead to avalanches. The timeliness of these forecasts does not exceed several hours, which allows activities to timely prevention and rescue. Detailed forecast is made for a separate avalanche chamber or mountainside.

It is based on studying the stability of the snow thickness and analysis of meteorological conditions. The adoption of forward-looking solutions is preceded by the definition of the stability of snow on the slopes. In a detailed forecast an assessment of the possible size of expected avalanches. Such an assessment is needed to perform and recovery operations. For any particular lavinosbora or area in which there are many lavinosborov, it is necessary to distinguish: – the forecast instant avalanche in this lavinosbore or district – the beginning of the forecast period, avalanche hazard, ie, the early prediction of the onset of this period, when This lavinosbore or near dangerous situations arise and little additional impact can cause an avalanche, although, ultimately, the avalanche may or may not go down. Usually, there are six degrees of avalanche danger: 1. Slight risk – go small avalanches on rare avalanche outbreak poses no threat to the population and facilities. 2. Weak danger – the danger of avalanches can be avoided without the avalanche of special events. 3. Small risk – for security rather avalanche forecasting and prevention. 4. Moderate – territory development requires construction of light avalanche structures that hold the boards and etc. 5. The great danger – territory development is impossible without the construction of capital avalanche protective engineering structures – dams, galleries. 6. Maximum risk – to ensure safety for people and structures existing methods can not.

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